🔗 Share this article The President's Assertive Claim on American Oil Investment in Venezuelan Meets Expert Skepticism. Market specialists have shown considerable caution regarding optimistic claims that US energy majors will quickly pump billions of dollars to rebuild Venezuela's dilapidated energy sector. Demand for Absolute Guarantees Lacking an absolute assurance of complete repayment from the US federal government, experts believe international firms to proceed with extreme caution. “It is too early to discuss any potential investments,” a representative commented recently. The aggressive schedule of under 18 months was boldly suggested. Yet, industry projections suggest a more cautious outlook. A More Realistic Outlook “It’s probably going to take 36 months for any kind of output increase,” said an industry expert. The analysis indicates oil companies would likely spend: Initial phase: Navigating new operating agreements. Following phase: Investing in overhaul of equipment. The third year: Being able to meaningfully increase yield. The result could be an boost of around half a million barrels per day perhaps by 2029. Desire Versus Readiness for Investment Experts make a important separation between companies' curiosity and their readiness to commit significantly. “I think their curiosity is an eight, on a scale of one to 10. However, their readiness is a four or five, because there is significant uncertainty yet.” Veteran operators in the sector reinforce this view. The thinking is that firms will politically call it fantastic while privately moving with deliberate slowness. The Vast Price Tag The financial investment would be colossal. Research projections suggest that increasing production by between 500,000 and a million barrels per day would require over $10 billion in funding over several years. Yet, returning production to peak levels of around 2.5 million barrels per day could require a staggering $80 billion to $90 billion over six or seven years. The Unanswered Question of Government Backing The prospect of oil giants being paid back by the US taxpayer has been often floated. However, formal assurances on any guarantee have so far not been announced. Without certainty is the primary factor for the sector's caution. Companies seek protection against sovereign risk and the chance that a different president could cancel any deal. “They must be shielded from nationalization, that we’ve witnessed in Venezuela already.” Therefore, while political optimism runs high, the operational realities suggest a road of slow deliberation for any large-scale venture in the country's oil sector.