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Back in 2018, a mere a short phrase to energize a Labour conference and to show the party was falling out of love with its then leader. While not exactly soaring oratory, the words were greeted with rapturous applause as delegates rose in an impromptu ovation.

As the commotion died down, Keir Starmer, stood at the podium, visibly startled. He was unaccustomed to his addresses having such an effect. His statement was simply: "We are not excluding staying in the EU". Context, however, is key.

In that darkly divisive time in 2018, departing from the prepared script like this was always going to be seen as laying down the gauntlet to the party leader, who sought to prioritize leave supporters in key constituencies above the Europhile sentiments within Labour. With that single address, this seemingly cautious opposition Brexit spokesman was transformed – if only for a while – into a political gambler who championed most Labour MPs, members and voters against the leadership he would later replace.

The Shift of Stance and Settled Debates

Since then, much has happened, especially for Starmer himself. An early move upon assuming leadership in 2020 was to declare the Brexit issue was resolved by the previous year’s national vote. During the most recent campaign, he repeatedly emphasised manifesto “red line” commitments that ruled out rejoining the European Union or its core structures.

Like his predecessor, the PM's approach has been to pursue pro-Leave voters in target constituencies, even if polling evidence suggests a significant number have died or changed their minds.

Pressure Building on the EU

However, the tables have turned and Starmer is now to be an embattled Labour leader. And, if Europe is no longer the boiling pot in UK politics, the cap that has been kept firmly shut for five years is starting to loosen once more.

Both Starmer and Rachel Reeves have intensified their language regarding the damage caused by Brexit has inflicted on the UK’s economy. This serves as an effective tool to criticize the Reform UK leader, who seldom discusses how leaving the EU was once his singular purpose and remains his only real achievement.

And yet, the scale of the damage, reportedly has left Britain with an economy that is between 6% and 8% smaller compared to EU membership, dwarfs the minor adjustments so far offered by ministers. Starmer’s so-called relationship reset negotiated with the EU last summer provides gains quantified in low decimal points.

Internal Pressure & Bolder Ideas

Rachel Reeves is one of those attempting to bypass entrenched interior ministry opposition to a broader scheme designed to boost growth youth mobility scheme by which young people can move between the UK and the EU for work or study.

The deputy prime minister muses openly regarding the clear advantages of being in an EU customs pact, while a dozen Labour MPs, including the chair of the Treasury select committee, last week supported a Liberal Democrat motion on customs union membership.

Although the Europe minister, who oversees UK-EU relations, now present at every cabinet meeting, insists the red lines remain unchanged, there are ways these could be bypassed. One idea involves declaring the commencement of negotiations now for a more ambitious agreement, to be featured in the following election platform, to be enacted only after securing a fresh mandate.

The Prime Minister's Deep-Seated Scepticism

However, Starmer has lately been damping it all down on the idea by warning rejoining an EU customs arrangement could undermine the commercial agreements with the US, which he views as key accomplishments of his premiership.

It is understood that the PM’s scepticism go still deeper, stemming from several key concerns.

1. Firstly, he thinks a customs pact is now much harder because his ministers busily de-aligning from European rules across a range of sectors, like environmental standards.
2. Second, the prohibitive cost set for the UK to join a European defense initiative and the ensuing failure of negotiations has led UK negotiators that European nations have little interest in offering favorable terms to the UK than in proving that leaving the EU was a mistake.
3. Thirdly, the new US national security strategy, which has been welcomed by the Kremlin, is seen by key advisors in Number 10 as grounds for Britain to keep its distance from Europe.

An Alarming Document and Strategic Calculations

This strange and concerning document asserts Europe is threatened by cultural extinction due to Muslim migration. It contains only one reference of the UK, found on a proposal that the US government may interfere in our politics to encourage the growth of “patriotic” parties.

But, far from deciding that this renders the US an undependable ally, the government is worried that aligning closer with Europe could upset the global balance by risking precarious American backing for Kyiv, NATO, and other alliances.

Succession Chatter and The Ghost from the Past

This situation brings us back to the conference of 2018. Starmer has always said his speech was not an attempt for the leadership but simply an attempt to keep open the possibility of remain being on the ballot paper. In fact, in those days, he still supported a “bespoke customs union deal” of the kind he now appears to be opposing.

Observers within the Prime Minister's office note that Wes Streeting, who just about everyone assumes would be a candidate in any leadership election, is among a clutch of senior ministers signaling they desire greater ambition regarding the EU.

Aides to the Deputy Prime Minister, another likely contender in a contest for the top job, insist she refuses to comment on her position regarding a customs pact as it would merely “fuel unnecessary gossip”.

The Obvious Risk and A Wise Reminder

The risk is clear. If Starmer rules out more meaningful steps towards a close relationship, he cedes ground to claim the territory where the overwhelming majority of the party's supporters are to be found.

It would be wise of him to remember the impact that a short phrase had on his career seven years ago. There are options for a big offer on Europe which the PM should not “rule out”; he should prise them open personally, rather than letting rivals makes them his – or her – own.