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A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the country and caused disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.

That conveys the caution from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Institutions Unprepared

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."

Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue

The pair have studied the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have won."

Legal Framework

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.

Lack of Substantive Discussion

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of serious debate, stated McBride.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or activists are willing to participate with even the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the volume, neither author supports unification or the status quo. Each composes two pieces that seek neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.

Debates encompass identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and provoke conversation.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the notion that there might be good arguments on either side."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.

Possibility of Referendum

The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"

Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has has important lessons to acquire from the other's arguments."

Appeal for Wider Debate

Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."