🔗 Share this article A Forecasting Platform Trader Earned $Nearly Half a Million on Bets Predicting Venezuela's Political Shift. A smartphone screen displays a prediction market application logo. A bettor profited close to $500,000 on the ouster of Nicolás Maduro shortly prior to it was publicly declared, leading to inquiries about the possibility of profiting from non-public details of the US operation. Market Movement in Forecasts Bets placed on the crypto-platform, an online prediction market, that the Venezuelan president would be no longer in control by the close of the month increased in the hours before President Donald Trump declared on Saturday that the president had been seized. One account, which joined the platform recently and placed four wagers, all on political events in Venezuela, profited a total of $436K from a initial bet of $32,537. It remains unclear. The user had only a blockchain identifier for identification. Probability Spikes Before News Break Platform data shows that users estimated the likelihood of the president's removal at just a low 6.5 percent in the afternoon of the Friday before the event. But the market's assessment had climbed to 11% by the end of the day and skyrocketed in the morning of the next day, indicating a sudden change in positions just before the social media post was made. "This particular bet has all the characteristics of a transaction based on non-public details," stated a financial reform advocate. Several of other traders also earned tens of thousands of dollars from bets on the same outcome. Regulatory Scrutiny Intensifies Politicians are starting to take note. A new rule put forward on the start of the week would prevent public officials from participating on forecasting platforms if they have "confidential government knowledge" related to a market. Industry Context Prediction markets have become increasingly popular in the United States, with traders able to wager on everything from elections to current affairs. The industry were examined under the previous administration. But it has received a warmer welcome during the current presidency. Using confidential knowledge is illegal in the traditional financial markets, but there are less oversight in the event betting industry. A company executive for another major platform said their site "explicitly prohibits such activities of any form."